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Red40
64710.7
11816.8
Blue24
44213.9
5139.5
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3021010405060704024

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
Unranked
16.80.7
16.116.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.9
442
Unranked
13.90.7
12.712.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
647
Unranked
10.70.7
11.612.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.2
513
Unranked
9.50.7
10.39.6
Auto
Teleop
End