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Red20
17178.8
18555.6
113817.4
Blue16
12668.2
9956.4
6966.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2524010203040502016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1138
Unranked
17.40.3
12.312.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 9.2
1266
Unranked
8.20.7
10.710.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1717
Unranked
8.80.3
5.75.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.3
696
Unranked
6.50.6
7.67.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1855
Unranked
5.60.0
5.65.6
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.8
995
Unranked
6.40.7
6.25.5
Auto
Teleop
End