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Red30
70114.3
7535.6
56812.5
Blue12
169611.7
3689.6
172613.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2524010203040503012

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
701
Unranked
14.30.3
8.28.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.1
1726
Unranked
13.20.8
9.28.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
568
Unranked
12.50.5
9.29.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.8
1696
Unranked
11.70.7
9.79.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
753
Unranked
5.60.3
6.67.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 4.0
368
Unranked
9.60.7
7.06.3
Auto
Teleop
End