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Red40
282625.0
139014.8
247012.9
Blue118
198723.1
28028.5
174318.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5264020408010012014040118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2826
#44
25.00.7
22.622.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 3.5
280
#31
28.52.8
28.231.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1390
#79
14.80.7
15.214.4
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 8.3
23.13.7
18.822.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2470
#81
12.90.8
15.614.8
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 5.7
1743
#62
18.52.8
15.818.5
Auto
Teleop
End