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Red1
25710.3
23820.4
18630.2
Blue0
24350.2
23980.9
23540.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1101234567810

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2382
#23
0.40.0
0.30.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.5
2398
#11
0.90.1
0.60.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2571
#43
0.30.0
0.10.1
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.2
2354
#21
0.50.1
0.10.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1863
#50
0.20.0
0.30.3
Auto
Teleop
End
Level
2435
#53
0.20.1
0.60.5
Auto
Teleop
End