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Red47
34619.3
17819.8
310419.1
Blue2
9995.8
35558.5
169921.5
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3428020406080100120472

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
178
#18
19.81.0
13.214.2
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.7
1699
#35
21.52.3
15.713.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3104
#11
19.11.2
9.911.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 10.5
3555
#53
8.52.3
9.26.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3461
#38
9.31.2
10.111.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 3.5
999
#33
5.82.1
4.32.2
Auto
Teleop
End