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Red122
19558.2
12528.8
23051.4
Blue125
206756.8
5714.1
18143.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13686050100150200250122125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#1
58.20.5
43.442.9
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.4
56.82.6
34.437.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
230
#14
51.40.5
41.040.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 8.5
181
#9
43.02.6
36.939.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
125
#19
28.80.5
44.043.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 24.7
571
#32
4.12.6
22.625.2
Auto
Teleop
End