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Red115
241249.9
297623.9
378716.7
Blue10
322325.6
46544.2
430910.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions484702040608010011510

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.95.6
25.831.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 24.3
3223
#15
25.63.2
16.913.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2976
#20
23.95.6
10.115.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 13.2
4309
#29
10.63.2
13.610.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3787
#11
16.75.6
11.617.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 12.5
4654
#31
4.23.2
17.614.4
Auto
Teleop
End