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Red45
529615.8
511817.6
574225.8
Blue16
433433.4
511710.3
463413.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1638060801001201401604516

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5742
#7Sur
25.82.1
9.311.4
Auto0.3
Teleop25.6
End0.0
blue by 7.6
4334
#3Sur
33.41.0
21.020.0
Auto0.5
Teleop32.9
End0.0
Second
5118
#25Sur
17.62.1
4.86.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.6
End0.0
red by 4.0
4634
#22Sur
13.51.6
7.35.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.6
End0.0
Third
5296
#28Sur
15.82.1
5.77.8
Auto0.2
Teleop15.5
End0.0
red by 5.5
5117
#31Sur
10.31.6
7.25.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.3
End0.0