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Red150
21752.1
131063.4
164071.6
Blue190
1023105.8
399638.3
233865.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1762080100300400500150190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.60.6
71.771.1
Auto1.9
Teleop69.6
End0.0
blue by 34.2
105.80.3
106.0105.7
Auto11.4
Teleop94.4
End0.0
Second
63.40.6
63.562.9
Auto9.8
Teleop53.6
End0.0
blue by 2.4
65.80.3
66.065.7
Auto0.9
Teleop64.9
End0.0
Third
217
#39
52.10.6
52.351.6
Auto1.4
Teleop50.7
End0.0
red by 13.8
3996
#25
38.30.3
38.638.3
Auto1.4
Teleop37.0
End0.0