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Red129
50351.6
360248.6
284832.9
Blue81
85749.4
170129.8
170628.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1278605010015020012981

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
503
#35
51.60.5
48.949.3
Auto-0.6
Teleop52.2
End0.0
red by 2.2
857
#8
49.40.7
43.642.9
Auto0.3
Teleop49.1
End0.0
Second
3602
#20
48.60.5
48.949.4
Auto1.1
Teleop47.5
End0.0
red by 18.8
1701
#45
29.80.7
21.120.4
Auto0.4
Teleop29.4
End0.0
Third
2848
#26
32.90.5
27.628.1
Auto0.4
Teleop32.5
End0.0
red by 4.2
1706
#60
28.70.7
30.930.2
Auto1.8
Teleop26.9
End0.0