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Red38
576115.0
452910.9
425329.6
Blue32
472910.2
300815.4
533314.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions292801020405060703832

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.60.8
12.112.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop29.9
End0.0
red by 14.2
15.40.1
13.113.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.7
End0.0
Second
15.00.8
8.18.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop15.1
End0.0
red by 0.6
5333
#22
14.40.1
11.011.1
Auto-0.5
Teleop14.8
End0.0
Third
4529
#17
10.90.8
8.79.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.0
End0.0
red by 0.6
4729
#19
10.20.1
6.46.5
Auto1.2
Teleop9.0
End0.0