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Red56
248626.9
116525.8
449614.5
Blue8
313317.3
84223.2
414624.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions515120406080568

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2486
#11
26.90.2
24.524.7
Auto1.1
Teleop25.9
End0.0
red by 2.7
4146
#31
24.22.3
16.013.7
Auto0.0
Teleop24.2
End0.0
Second
25.80.4
13.313.7
Auto0.3
Teleop25.5
End0.0
red by 2.6
842
#21
23.22.3
21.719.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop23.3
End0.0
Third
4496
#33
14.50.4
13.914.3
Auto0.4
Teleop14.1
End0.0
blue by 2.8
3133
#22
17.32.3
16.213.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.4
End0.0