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Red5
510110.8
357722.1
498512.0
Blue39
149227.5
469617.4
484113.8
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions38540100150200250300539

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.11.9
20.218.3
Auto0.0
Teleop22.1
End0.0
blue by 5.4
27.50.7
30.129.4
Auto0.2
Teleop27.3
End0.0
Second
4985
#24
12.03.1
14.511.4
Auto0.4
Teleop11.6
End0.0
blue by 5.3
4696
#15
17.40.7
11.410.7
Auto1.0
Teleop16.3
End0.0
Third
5101
#26
10.83.1
7.64.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.0
End0.0
blue by 3.0
4841
#14
13.80.7
12.411.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop14.1
End0.0