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Red40
99117.8
414625.9
521811.4
Blue74
172636.1
494422.9
237520.2
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions467001001502004074

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4146
#12
25.90.6
22.622.1
Auto-0.6
Teleop26.5
End0.0
blue by 10.2
36.10.2
29.229.5
Auto0.3
Teleop35.8
End0.0
Second
991
#21
17.80.6
16.215.6
Auto0.8
Teleop17.0
End0.0
blue by 5.2
4944
#19
22.90.2
19.419.7
Auto1.0
Teleop22.0
End0.0
Third
5218
#25
11.40.9
12.511.5
Auto0.4
Teleop11.0
End0.0
blue by 8.8
2375
#16
20.20.2
20.520.7
Auto0.4
Teleop19.7
End0.0