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Red22
450126.6
58511.0
347316.3
Blue7
59921.8
98016.7
585B5.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions544002080100120227

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4501
Unranked
26.60.0
26.626.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop26.8
End0.0
red by 4.8
599
Unranked
21.80.0
21.821.8
Auto1.2
Teleop20.6
End0.0
Second
3473
Unranked
16.30.0
16.316.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.5
End0.0
blue by 0.4
980
Unranked
16.70.0
16.716.7
Auto0.5
Teleop16.2
End0.0
Third
585
Unranked
11.00.0
11.011.0
Auto2.0
Teleop9.0
End0.0
red by 5.5
585B
Unranked
5.50.0
5.55.5
Auto1.0
Teleop4.5
End0.0