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Red152
512432.5
119733.2
244330.3
Blue120
388223.1
263734.1
113811.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions91530150200152120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.21.1
31.032.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop33.3
End0.0
blue by 0.9
34.11.0
32.133.1
Auto0.4
Teleop33.7
End0.0
Second
32.51.4
29.631.0
Auto0.1
Teleop32.4
End0.0
red by 9.4
3882
#19
23.11.3
20.521.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.3
End0.0
Third
2443
#21
30.31.4
27.428.8
Auto0.1
Teleop30.2
End0.0
red by 19.0
1138
#64
11.31.3
8.710.0
Auto0.3
Teleop11.0
End0.0