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Red70
350121.7
349522.8
418315.4
Blue73
471118.6
34827.4
207315.3
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6226040801001201401607073

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3495
#10
22.80.8
21.922.7
Auto0.5
Teleop22.4
End0.0
red by 4.3
4711
#18
18.63.1
15.518.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop19.1
End0.0
Second
3501
#11
21.70.8
21.822.6
Auto1.3
Teleop20.5
End0.0
red by 6.5
2073
#26
15.33.1
13.016.1
Auto0.1
Teleop15.1
End0.0
Third
4183
#36
15.40.8
14.615.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop15.8
End0.0
red by 8.0
3482
#48
7.43.1
4.37.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop7.4
End0.0