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Red54
35940.5
513611.5
405614.2
Blue29
248512.0
164417.1
491312.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions414102060805429

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#2
40.50.9
21.922.9
Auto0.9
Teleop39.6
End0.0
red by 23.4
17.10.6
15.815.2
Auto0.0
Teleop17.1
End0.0
Second
4056
#18
14.20.9
12.012.9
Auto0.4
Teleop13.8
End0.0
red by 1.7
4913
#22
12.50.6
7.46.7
Auto0.1
Teleop12.4
End0.0
Third
5136
#33
11.50.9
8.89.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.6
End0.0
blue by 0.5
2485
#36
12.00.6
19.618.9
Auto0.3
Teleop11.7
End0.0