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Red188
132573.5
99961.0
253435.9
Blue228
540666.8
9338.4
525465.5
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142140100120160180200220188228

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.52.1
53.155.3
Auto-0.4
Teleop74.0
End0.0
red by 6.8
66.84.0
56.961.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop66.9
End0.0
Second
999
#14
61.02.1
56.158.3
Auto0.3
Teleop60.7
End0.0
blue by 4.5
5254
#10
65.54.0
57.261.3
Auto0.4
Teleop65.2
End0.0
Third
2534
#55
35.92.1
35.938.0
Auto-1.0
Teleop36.9
End0.0
blue by 2.5
93
#52
38.44.0
33.337.3
Auto-0.5
Teleop39.0
End0.0