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Red190
237735.9
360457.2
8576.0
Blue158
512250.3
6058.5
151045.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153145100120160180200190158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85
#3
76.01.6
74.976.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop76.5
End0.0
red by 17.5
60
#32
58.50.3
58.058.3
Auto0.4
Teleop58.1
End0.0
Second
3604
#34
57.21.6
55.256.8
Auto1.9
Teleop55.3
End0.0
red by 6.9
5122
#23
50.30.3
50.550.8
Auto0.7
Teleop49.6
End0.0
Third
2377
#50
35.91.6
27.028.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop36.1
End0.0
blue by 9.5
1510
#37
45.50.3
43.143.4
Auto0.6
Teleop44.9
End0.0