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Red187
254114.1
46731.9
505917.9
Blue150
458740.6
99961.0
325631.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16011250100200250187150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#1
114.11.4
113.4114.8
Auto14.2
Teleop99.9
End0.0
red by 53.1
999
#14
61.01.3
60.361.7
Auto0.3
Teleop60.7
End0.0
Second
467
#43
31.91.4
29.831.2
Auto0.2
Teleop31.8
End0.0
blue by 8.7
4587
#58
40.61.3
38.539.8
Auto0.4
Teleop40.2
End0.0
Third
5059
#51
17.91.4
15.116.5
Auto1.1
Teleop16.8
End0.0
blue by 13.4
3256
#70
31.31.3
25.026.3
Auto0.7
Teleop30.6
End0.0