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Red56
374911.4
157239.3
413914.1
Blue117
302129.4
513727.3
347649.4
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5076010015020056117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.30.0
30.430.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop39.4
End0.0
blue by 10.1
49.42.1
31.133.2
Auto0.1
Teleop49.3
End0.0
Second
4139
#36
14.10.0
17.417.4
Auto0.2
Teleop13.9
End0.0
blue by 15.3
29.42.1
20.923.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.7
End0.0
Third
3749
#27
11.40.0
8.48.4
Auto0.1
Teleop11.4
End0.0
blue by 15.8
5137
#17
27.32.1
22.925.0
Auto1.0
Teleop26.2
End0.0