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Red27
115912.2
427619.3
420153.4
Blue84
171745.1
552913.6
183633.5
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74714060801002784

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.42.5
45.242.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop53.5
End0.0
red by 8.3
45.10.5
35.936.4
Auto4.8
Teleop40.4
End0.0
Second
4276
#36
19.32.5
23.120.7
Auto0.5
Teleop18.8
End0.0
blue by 14.2
1836
#10
33.50.5
27.528.0
Auto0.1
Teleop33.4
End0.0
Third
1159
#39
12.24.1
8.24.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.4
End0.0
blue by 1.5
5529
#31
13.60.5
10.711.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop13.9
End0.0