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Red82
380715.8
172340.8
531824.0
Blue102
438821.5
297227.1
441826.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68662040608010012082102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.80.7
35.936.6
Auto2.4
Teleop38.4
End0.0
red by 13.6
2972
#23
27.11.6
25.527.1
Auto0.4
Teleop26.8
End0.0
Second
5318
#34
24.00.9
18.018.9
Auto3.0
Teleop21.0
End0.0
blue by 2.1
4418
#16
26.02.1
23.926.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop26.3
End0.0
Third
3807
#41
15.80.9
14.915.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.1
End0.0
blue by 5.7
4388
#26
21.52.1
20.422.5
Auto0.4
Teleop21.1
End0.0