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Red159
217050.9
206762.3
346416.8
Blue151
112437.2
17732.8
23641.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1169450150200159151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.30.8
57.958.7
Auto1.4
Teleop60.9
End0.0
red by 20.9
236
#15
41.40.8
38.138.9
Auto5.6
Teleop35.8
End0.0
Second
50.90.8
46.647.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop51.1
End0.0
red by 13.7
1124
#18
37.20.8
33.834.6
Auto2.8
Teleop34.3
End0.0
Third
3464
#38
16.80.8
12.513.3
Auto1.3
Teleop15.4
End0.0
blue by 16.0
177
#12
32.80.8
29.430.3
Auto1.7
Teleop31.0
End0.0