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Red131
22819.5
18126.5
23059.7
Blue98
169935.8
355519.3
112437.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions875905010015020013198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#3
59.72.3
49.952.2
Auto5.0
Teleop54.7
End0.0
red by 22.5
1124
#18
37.21.6
28.329.9
Auto2.8
Teleop34.3
End0.0
Second
181
#24
26.52.3
17.920.2
Auto0.7
Teleop25.7
End0.0
blue by 9.3
35.81.6
23.124.7
Auto1.1
Teleop34.7
End0.0
Third
228
#30
19.52.3
17.720.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.5
End0.0
red by 0.2
3555
#27
19.31.6
14.315.9
Auto0.0
Teleop19.3
End0.0