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Red16
199116.6
19517.3
512915.8
Blue9
455715.5
574611.7
22815.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5939050100150169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#26
17.33.0
24.421.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop17.7
End0.0
red by 1.7
4557
#14
15.52.9
16.713.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop15.7
End0.0
Second
1991
#18
16.63.0
16.513.4
Auto0.1
Teleop16.6
End0.0
red by 1.3
228
#24
15.32.9
17.014.1
Auto0.0
Teleop15.3
End0.0
Third
5129
#12
15.83.0
17.514.4
Auto0.8
Teleop15.0
End0.0
red by 4.1
5746
#20
11.72.9
9.97.0
Auto0.5
Teleop11.1
End0.0