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Red36
26335.2
17931.3
519616.2
Blue9
71412.3
15913.0
316420.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions56240100150369

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
263
#6
35.21.5
15.113.6
Auto2.1
Teleop33.1
End0.0
red by 14.7
3164
#22
20.51.8
12.510.7
Auto0.5
Teleop20.0
End0.0
Second
179
#2
31.31.5
21.920.4
Auto0.1
Teleop31.2
End0.0
red by 18.3
159
#40
13.01.8
8.76.9
Auto0.8
Teleop12.1
End0.0
Third
5196
#34
16.21.5
16.515.0
Auto0.3
Teleop15.9
End0.0
red by 3.9
714
#43
12.31.8
9.07.2
Auto0.9
Teleop11.3
End0.0