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Red67
500510.9
141429.6
513217.8
Blue91
470718.2
541020.6
533616.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions403202060801006791

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.62.2
15.217.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop29.7
End0.0
red by 9.0
5410
#37
20.62.8
16.319.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop20.9
End0.0
Second
5132
#31
17.82.2
16.018.2
Auto0.5
Teleop17.3
End0.0
blue by 0.5
4707
#33
18.24.7
7.912.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.3
End0.0
Third
5005
#55
10.92.2
9.211.4
Auto0.0
Teleop10.9
End0.0
blue by 5.8
5336
#28
16.74.7
10.014.8
Auto0.1
Teleop16.7
End0.0