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Red54
317523.8
558427.2
54216.7
Blue38
74453.4
302617.2
33378.8
15%Model gave it85%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions419101502005438

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5584
#51
27.20.8
22.523.3
Auto0.9
Teleop26.3
End0.0
blue by 26.2
744
#22Sur
53.42.4
60.458.0
Auto1.5
Teleop51.9
End0.0
Second
3175
#60Sur
23.80.8
19.720.5
Auto-0.7
Teleop24.5
End0.0
red by 6.6
3026
#72
17.22.4
14.512.1
Auto0.4
Teleop16.7
End0.0
Third
5421
#74
6.70.9
8.39.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop6.9
End0.0
blue by 2.1
3337
#73
8.82.4
11.59.1
Auto0.4
Teleop8.4
End0.0