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Red191
361857.8
86251.3
147726.9
Blue174
216856.9
328832.8
394442.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12810550150200191174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.83.1
48.751.8
Auto1.1
Teleop56.6
End0.0
red by 0.9
2168
#20
56.93.1
48.651.7
Auto-0.7
Teleop57.6
End0.0
Second
862
#28
51.33.1
50.053.1
Auto-1.4
Teleop52.6
End0.0
red by 9.0
3944
#30
42.33.1
32.335.4
Auto-2.2
Teleop44.5
End0.0
Third
1477
#54
26.93.1
30.633.7
Auto0.1
Teleop26.8
End0.0
blue by 6.0
3288
#36
32.83.1
31.534.6
Auto0.4
Teleop32.4
End0.0