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Red134
496147.8
100224.4
33075.3
Blue136
49246.7
172647.6
521639.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15211450100200250134136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
330
#11
75.30.9
75.274.3
Auto2.7
Teleop72.6
End0.0
red by 27.7
1726
#13
47.60.6
42.943.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop47.7
End0.0
Second
4961
#10
47.80.9
46.445.5
Auto0.0
Teleop47.8
End0.0
red by 1.1
492
#27
46.70.6
47.247.8
Auto0.2
Teleop46.5
End0.0
Third
1002
#47
24.40.9
29.528.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop24.5
End0.0
blue by 15.5
5216
#49
39.90.6
33.934.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop40.2
End0.0