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Red2
208013.6
23313.4
29189.9
Blue26
360020.9
30916.4
395924.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions382206080100120140226

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2080
#18
13.61.9
15.713.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.7
End0.0
blue by 10.9
24.50.0
10.510.5
Auto0.7
Teleop23.9
End0.0
Second
233
#36
13.41.9
12.310.4
Auto0.1
Teleop13.4
End0.0
blue by 7.4
20.90.0
11.211.2
Auto0.1
Teleop20.8
End0.0
Third
2918
#27
9.91.9
9.17.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.9
End0.0
red by 3.5
3091
#39
6.40.0
4.14.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop6.5
End0.0