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Red64
520322.4
515020.8
542412.3
Blue38
515616.6
353826.7
546044.5
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions469201502006438

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5203
Unranked
22.40.0
22.422.4
Auto0.4
Teleop22.0
End0.0
blue by 22.2
5460
Unranked
44.50.0
44.544.5
Auto0.3
Teleop44.2
End0.0
Second
5150
Unranked
20.80.0
20.820.8
Auto0.3
Teleop20.5
End0.0
blue by 5.9
3538
Unranked
26.70.0
26.726.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop27.0
End0.0
Third
5424
Unranked
12.30.0
12.312.3
Auto1.0
Teleop11.3
End0.0
blue by 4.3
5156
Unranked
16.60.0
16.616.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop16.6
End0.0