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Red162
282695.2
426534.9
395040.1
Blue182
12556.7
557643.4
121864.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1351500100200300400500162182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95.21.0
85.886.7
Auto14.2
Teleop80.9
End0.0
red by 30.5
64.71.4
62.864.3
Auto1.3
Teleop63.4
End0.0
Second
3950
#23
40.11.2
28.529.7
Auto0.7
Teleop39.5
End0.0
blue by 16.6
125
#18
56.71.4
52.654.0
Auto0.8
Teleop55.9
End0.0
Third
4265
#45
34.91.0
27.928.9
Auto-0.2
Teleop35.1
End0.0
blue by 8.5
5576
#17
43.41.6
37.939.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop43.7
End0.0