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Red113
393922.9
413043.6
12556.7
Blue70
511827.5
278350.6
479919.9
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1126905010015020011370

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
125
#18
56.70.5
52.152.6
Auto0.8
Teleop55.9
End0.0
red by 6.1
2783
#38
50.60.4
46.746.2
Auto1.2
Teleop49.3
End0.0
Second
4130
#33
43.60.5
37.938.4
Auto-0.8
Teleop44.4
End0.0
red by 16.1
5118
#47
27.50.4
17.617.1
Auto-1.8
Teleop29.3
End0.0
Third
3939
#68
22.90.7
19.219.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.0
End0.0
red by 3.0
4799
#69
19.90.4
14.514.0
Auto-0.9
Teleop20.8
End0.0