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Red159
414352.8
251255.7
421220.4
Blue127
400934.3
352837.7
11133.7
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1259550150200250159127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.70.6
54.455.0
Auto14.5
Teleop41.1
End0.0
red by 18.0
37.70.4
36.937.3
Auto0.7
Teleop37.0
End0.0
Second
52.80.6
51.652.1
Auto1.6
Teleop51.2
End0.0
red by 18.6
4009
#11
34.30.4
33.533.9
Auto0.8
Teleop33.5
End0.0
Third
4212
#27
20.40.6
19.119.7
Auto2.4
Teleop18.0
End0.0
blue by 13.4
111
#15
33.70.4
33.033.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop33.8
End0.0