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Red110
394038.2
46140.5
86844.8
Blue130
540337.0
286740.8
394746.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99946080120140110130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
868
#15
44.80.4
37.137.5
Auto1.0
Teleop43.8
End0.0
blue by 1.7
3947
#12
46.51.6
41.843.4
Auto1.1
Teleop45.4
End0.0
Second
461
#19
40.50.4
35.535.9
Auto0.5
Teleop40.0
End0.0
blue by 0.3
40.81.6
32.433.9
Auto1.8
Teleop39.0
End0.0
Third
3940
#20
38.20.4
29.529.9
Auto0.8
Teleop37.3
End0.0
red by 1.2
5403
#11
37.01.6
24.225.8
Auto0.0
Teleop37.0
End0.0