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Red198
102455.2
540337.0
44748.6
Blue126
174143.1
82945.8
448533.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13011350100150200198126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.23.3
55.458.7
Auto2.8
Teleop52.4
End0.0
red by 9.4
829
#10
45.80.3
37.838.1
Auto1.2
Teleop44.6
End0.0
Second
447
#13
48.63.3
43.046.3
Auto0.7
Teleop47.9
End0.0
red by 5.4
43.10.3
42.242.6
Auto2.2
Teleop40.9
End0.0
Third
5403
#11
37.03.3
33.536.8
Auto0.0
Teleop37.0
End0.0
red by 3.4
4485
#24
33.60.3
39.639.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop33.7
End0.0