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Red128
152928.0
518857.7
29238.4
Blue182
150162.3
174738.0
86844.8
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113129050150200250300128182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.70.7
53.954.6
Auto0.1
Teleop57.6
End0.0
blue by 4.6
62.32.5
56.759.2
Auto-0.5
Teleop62.8
End0.0
Second
292
#16
38.40.7
39.840.5
Auto1.1
Teleop37.3
End0.0
blue by 6.4
868
#15
44.82.5
40.643.2
Auto1.0
Teleop43.8
End0.0
Third
1529
#29
28.00.7
25.826.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop28.2
End0.0
blue by 10.0
1747
#23
38.02.5
33.936.4
Auto0.1
Teleop37.8
End0.0