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Red159
394746.5
102455.2
540238.3
Blue100
548433.7
386526.7
172047.5
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14194050200159100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.21.0
56.557.5
Auto2.8
Teleop52.4
End0.0
red by 7.7
47.50.2
48.047.7
Auto-0.0
Teleop47.5
End0.0
Second
3947
#12
46.51.0
46.047.0
Auto1.1
Teleop45.4
End0.0
red by 12.9
5484
#22
33.70.2
31.931.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop34.2
End0.0
Third
5402
#14
38.31.0
36.237.2
Auto0.0
Teleop38.2
End0.0
red by 11.6
3865
#27
26.70.2
24.824.5
Auto0.6
Teleop26.0
End0.0