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Red4
19658.2
53473.8
416914.5
Blue77
287626.3
346723.8
349914.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29590204080100120140477

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4169
#14
14.52.2
15.513.3
Auto0.6
Teleop13.9
End0.0
blue by 11.9
26.31.0
20.721.7
Auto0.8
Teleop25.5
End0.0
Second
1965
#32
8.22.2
12.410.2
Auto0.2
Teleop8.0
End0.0
blue by 15.5
23.81.5
23.424.9
Auto0.8
Teleop22.9
End0.0
Third
5347
#39
3.82.2
7.14.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop3.8
End0.0
blue by 10.6
3499
#21
14.41.5
12.413.9
Auto0.2
Teleop14.2
End0.0