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Red96
107325.9
287626.3
271316.0
Blue106
31921.8
356627.3
147418.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6464506070809010096106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.30.5
25.826.3
Auto0.8
Teleop25.5
End0.0
blue by 0.9
27.30.7
26.627.3
Auto0.7
Teleop26.5
End0.0
Second
25.90.5
25.425.9
Auto0.0
Teleop25.8
End0.0
red by 4.1
319
#16
21.80.7
21.221.9
Auto4.7
Teleop17.1
End0.0
Third
2713
#15
16.00.5
15.516.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.3
End0.0
blue by 2.9
1474
#13
18.80.7
18.218.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop19.1
End0.0