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Red14
358516.3
345123.3
17225.0
Blue6
404215.9
264817.9
549418.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions573502080100120140146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
172
#9
25.03.5
20.517.0
Auto0.3
Teleop24.7
End0.0
red by 6.7
5494
#22
18.32.8
8.35.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.5
End0.0
Second
3451
#10
23.33.5
20.917.4
Auto0.7
Teleop22.6
End0.0
red by 5.4
2648
#23
17.92.8
17.915.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop18.1
End0.0
Third
3585
#20
16.32.1
14.312.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.6
End0.0
red by 0.5
4042
#25
15.91.7
13.111.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.0
End0.0