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Red19
439518.0
152813.1
366828.2
Blue90
296039.8
578415.3
90439.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions559801502001990

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3668
#29
28.22.2
29.727.5
Auto0.4
Teleop27.7
End0.0
blue by 11.7
2960
#15
39.80.0
40.340.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop39.9
End0.0
Second
4395
#24
18.02.2
18.616.4
Auto0.8
Teleop17.2
End0.0
blue by 21.4
904
#11
39.40.1
39.439.5
Auto0.8
Teleop38.6
End0.0
Third
1528
#34
13.12.2
15.313.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.5
End0.0
blue by 2.2
5784
#37
15.30.0
15.315.3
Auto1.0
Teleop14.4
End0.0