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Red112
309833.4
283445.1
481512.9
Blue103
438436.7
118941.6
571114.5
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8887406080100120140112103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.10.4
44.244.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop45.3
End0.0
red by 3.4
41.60.2
41.741.9
Auto1.2
Teleop40.5
End0.0
Second
33.40.4
32.532.9
Auto0.7
Teleop32.7
End0.0
blue by 3.3
36.70.2
36.836.9
Auto1.0
Teleop35.7
End0.0
Third
4815
#28
12.90.4
12.012.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.3
End0.0
blue by 1.6
5711
#24
14.50.2
14.614.8
Auto0.1
Teleop14.4
End0.0