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Red40
285121.5
317513.4
259111.8
Blue18
118941.6
55552.1
33984.0
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions444220305060704018

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2851
#14
21.50.3
22.922.7
Auto0.4
Teleop21.1
End0.0
blue by 20.2
41.61.3
34.032.7
Auto1.2
Teleop40.5
End0.0
Second
3175
#17
13.40.3
12.212.0
Auto-0.4
Teleop13.7
End0.0
red by 9.3
3398
#40
4.02.1
4.52.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop4.1
End0.0
Third
2591
#22
11.80.4
9.99.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.9
End0.0
red by 9.7
5555
#37
2.12.1
5.02.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop2.3
End0.0