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Red16
285121.5
481011.3
36195.0
Blue10
194111.8
48115.3
50657.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions482004060801001201401610

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2851
#14
21.51.5
24.723.2
Auto0.4
Teleop21.1
End0.0
red by 9.7
1941
#15
11.80.5
11.411.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop12.1
End0.0
Second
4810
#29
11.32.4
13.911.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.4
End0.0
red by 3.9
5065
#34
7.40.8
9.99.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop7.7
End0.0
Third
3619
#38
5.02.4
6.74.2
Auto0.1
Teleop5.0
End0.0
blue by 0.3
4811
#39
5.30.8
3.93.1
Auto0.0
Teleop5.3
End0.0