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Red131
438436.7
118941.6
571114.5
Blue134
309833.4
283445.1
481512.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions89824060100120140131134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.8
40.941.7
Auto1.2
Teleop40.5
End0.0
blue by 3.4
45.10.8
43.444.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop45.3
End0.0
Second
36.70.8
36.036.8
Auto1.0
Teleop35.7
End0.0
red by 3.3
33.40.8
31.732.5
Auto0.7
Teleop32.7
End0.0
Third
5711
#24
14.50.8
13.814.6
Auto0.1
Teleop14.4
End0.0
red by 1.6
4815
#28
12.90.8
11.212.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.3
End0.0